Australian Boomer
Death Clock

The clock keeps the reference site’s sigmoid shape: a slope of 0.12 and a midpoint of age 75, normalised so survival begins at 100% at birth. This assumes roughly half a birth-year group has died by age 75. It is an assumption, not a measured Australian fact.

After age 90, the curve uses male and female age-specific death probabilities from ABS Australian Life Tables 2022–2024. Beyond age 100, mortality hazards rise exponentially at a rate fitted to the age-90 and age-100 hazards. This removes the reference formula’s implausible tail of thousands of survivors aged 115–134. The older-age tail is still an extrapolation, not validated supercentenarian data.

Each birth-year group has a representative birthday of 1 July. Within an age year, the old-age mortality hazard is constant. Future mortality improvements are excluded. No arbitrary “extinction date” is imposed. A projected count below one is shown as “<1”; it does not identify the last actual survivor.

Whole totals round to the nearest person and always reconcile: alive + dead = original cohort. Deaths today compare the whole death total with Sydney midnight, including daylight saving. The next-death timer solves the next rounding threshold of the same model. It is not a prediction of an individual death.

The starting total is 4,192,763 registered Australian births in 1946–1965, using the actual counts by birth year and sex. This follows the Australian definition including 1965. It does not use a 2021 census reset.

Later immigrants are excluded from both the birth total and modelled survivors. Emigration is not counted as death. Historical figures are by year of registration, not necessarily year of birth. The ABS historical series excludes Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander births before 1966, so it is not a complete count of everyone born in Australia.